Gathered and summarized by Walt Crawford from various sources. This page covers current trends and commentaries--"current" in this case meaning "since June 2009." For earlier tech trends, see Technology Trends: Recent History.

Ten Things You Should Know About Technology

Roy Tennant posted "The top ten things library administrators should know about technology" on September 12, 2009 at TechEssence.info. You may find the article useful in thinking about technology and technology trends.

Here are the ten key points; the article itself includes a paragraph expanding on each of them:

1. Technology isn't as hard as you think it is.
2. Technology gets easier all the time.
3. Technology gets cheaper all the time.
4. Maximize the effectiveness of your most costly technology investment--your people.
5. Iterate, don't perfect.
6. Be prepared to fail.
7. Be prepared to succeed.
8. Never underestimate the power of a prototype.
9. A major portion of good technology implementation is good project management.
10. The single biggest threat to any technology project is political in nature.

Don't take those points as gospel any more than you'd accept any management advice as always being correct. Do think about the points (and their expansions) as you're considering technologies and technology trends.

Library Technology Trends

LITA Top Tech Trends at ALA Midwinter 2010

This year, for the first time in its 11-year existence, the panel of Top Tech "trendsters" was entirely new--a "reboot" yielding five academic librarians (all at university libraries)--Amanda Etches-Johnson, Jason Griffey, Joe Murphy, Lauren Pressley and David Walker. The panel was asked to offer just one trend each, with the second half of the session ("not a program") devoted to a round-robin on the future of the book.

You'll find coverage of the session at Library Journal, on American Libraries' "Inside Scoop", in notes by Bobbi L. Newman, notes by the Krafty Librarian, notes by panelists Amanda Etches-Johnson, Jason Griffey and Lauren Pressley--and an impressive list of links related to the session provided by "surferblue."

Given the extent of that coverage (you'll also find archived video from the non-program itself), it seems reasonable to simply state the primary trends raised, without extended discussion.

• Discovery systems that aggregate indexes of subscription and local content--e.g. Summon, Primo, WorldCat Local. The logical next step from federated search (and without federated search's inherent structural issues).
• User experience--which has its own inscrutable initialism, UX. Something that needs to be considered as new technology-driven services are designed.
• Mobile technology as nearly ubiquitous. Joe Murphy, who cited thist rend, made the interesting comment that "the only time print is relevant is when it's not yet available digitally"--but it's worth noting that Murphy is a science librarian.
• Augmented reality--the real-time combination of the real and the virtual.
• The year of apps, the end of apps. Jason Griffey asserted both that 2010 was "the year of apps" and that it's "the year that the app dies," with HTML5 replacing apps.
• Reinventing the book: The panelists offered a range of comments in this area. Griffey repeated his year-of/death-of pairing, saying 2010 is the year of ereader--and the death of dedicated ereaders, replaced by software platforms. Murphy thinks libraries should avoid ebook hardware and focus on content. Pressley isn't happy about the continuing shift from ownership to rental--er, licensing. Etches-Johnson noted the "Vook," a mix of text and video, and urged concern about accessibility. Walker looked toward digital content achieving a "parity between ebooks and ejournals." That's a wholly inadequate summary; see some of the other reports (this one's a good place to start).

Ten Predictions for the E-Reader/E-Book Market in 2010

I'm including these as library-related for what I consider obvious reasons. They're predictions, not trends, and they come from a December 1, 2009 post by Sarah Rotman Epps and James McQuivey of Forrester Research on December 1, 2009 at paidContent. Forecasts are in boldface with paraphrases and commentary in regular type--noting that your editorial director, frequently regarded as an ebook/ereader skeptic or even Luddite, regards these all as perfectly reasonable forecasts. Note again that this post came out two months before the iPad announcement--and that the iPad isn't an ereader as such, but will almost certainly compete with them.

• E Ink will lose its claim to near-100% market share for e-reader displays. They expect to see cheaper electrophoretic displays but also dual-screen devices (e.g., the Nook) and OLED or transflective LCD. This seems like a slam-dunk projection: Almost certainly true.
• “Most consumers don’t read enough to justify buying a single-function reading device, and according to Forrester’s data, more consumers already read e-books on mobile phones and PCs than on e-readers.” Also seems likely, although it’s possible that such devices will expand the market rather than “eating into” demand.
• Apps will make non-reading devices more e-book friendly. Another slam-dunk. Did I mention that Forrester tends to be conservative and realistic within the realm of forecasting agencies?
• eReaders will get apps, too. Maybe—which will continue to raise issues as to just what an ebook reader really is.
• Amazon will launch a suite of new touchscreen e-readers. The writers expect to see touchscreens, color (with great battery life? really?) and flexible displays. I don’t know enough to comment.
• B&N will steal market share from Amazon and Sony. “Steal” is the wrong word here, but wouldn’t it be nice to have serious competition in this marketplace?
• E-book content sales will top $500 million in the U.S.This strikes me as an entirely plausible forecast. Not certain, but plausible.
• E-textbooks will become more accessible, but sales will be modest. And, unfortunately, the analysts say why there won’t be great sales. Since I’ve long touted e-textbooks as a big market for the right ereaders, this is sad but probably true.
• Magazine and newspaper publishers will launch their own apps and devices. That one is 100% certain, I would say.
• China, India, Brazil, and the EU will propel global growth, but the U.S. will still be the biggest market. Outside my expertise, but sounds likely.

Technology Trends of 2009: What Does 2010 Bring?

Krafty Librarian, a medical librarian, offered this commentary on December 15, 2009--specifically offering Krafty's assertions as to what was and wasn't hot in 2009, and what will and won't be in 2010 (notably, with question marks). Editor's snarky comments in italics.

• Hot in 2009: App phones (and two medicine-specific trends). “Say goodbye to ‘smart phones’ and hello app phones.”
• Not in 2009: Blogs (“everybody is tweeting now”) and medicine-specific items. “Everybody is tweeting now. Wow. So much for blogs…like Krafty Librarian.
• Hot in 2010?: Flash, Twitter and Mobile optimization with a followup universal statement, quoted verbatim: “Everybody is using app phones.” So if you're not using app phones, you're nobody.
• Not in 2010?: Google Wave, E-readers in medical libraries.

The 2010 Horizon Report

This annual report from the Horizon Project of the New Media Consortium includes half a dozen education-related trends with "time to adoption" numbers. What does "adoption" mean? "Entrance into mainstream use for teaching, learning or creative inquiry." That doesn't mean ubiquity; it should mean reasonably widespread use. It's worth noting that the report explicitly says it is "not a predictive tool. It is meant, rather, to highlight emerging technologies with considerable potential for our focus areas of teaching, learning, and creative inquiry."

For 2010, here's what the group sees on the horizon, with text taken directly from the report--with the explicit assumption that what matters to education also matters to libraries:

This Year (During 2010)

• Mobile computing, by which we mean use of the network-capable devices students are already carrying, is already established on many campuses, although before we see widespread use, concerns about privacy, classroom management, and access will need to be addressed. At the same time, the opportunity is great; virtually all higher education students carry some form of mobile device, and the cellular network that supports their connectivity continues to grow. An increasing number of faculty and instructional technology staff are experimenting with the possibilities for collaboration and communication offered by mobile computing. Devices from smart phones to netbooks are portable tools for productivity, learning, and communication, offering an increasing range of activities fully supported by applications designed especially for mobiles.
• Open content...is the current form of a movement that began nearly a decade ago, when schools like MIT began to make their course content freely available. Today, there is a tremendous variety of open content, and in many parts of the world, open content represents a profound shift in the way students study and learn. Far more than a collection of free online course materials, the open content movement is a response to the rising costs of education, the desire for access to learning in areas where such access is difficult, and an expression of student choice about when and how to learn.

Two to Three Years Out (2011-2012)

• Electronic books have been available in some form for nearly four decades, but the past twelve months have seen a dramatic upswing in their acceptance and use. Convenient and capable electronic reading devices combine the activities of acquiring, storing, reading, and annotating digital books, making it very easy to collect and carry hundreds of volumes in a space smaller than a single paperback book. Already in the mainstream of consumer use, electronic books are appearing on campuses with increasing frequency. Thanks to a number of pilot programs, much is already known about student preferences with regards to the various platforms available. Electronic books promise to reduce costs, save students from carrying pounds of textbooks, and contribute to the environmental efforts of paper-conscious campuses.
• Simple augmented reality refers to the shift that has made augmented reality accessible to almost anyone. Augmented reality used to require specialized equipment, none of which was very portable. Today, applications for laptops and smart phones overlay digital information onto the physical world quickly and easily. While still two to three years away from widespread use on campuses, augmented reality is establishing a foothold in the consumer sector, and in a form much easier to access than originally envisioned.

Four to Five Years Away (2013-2014)

• Gesture-based computing is already strong in the consumer market and we are seeing a growing number of prototypical applications for training, research, and study, though this technology is still some time away from common educational use. Devices that are controlled by natural movements of the finger, hand, arm, and body are becoming more common. Game companies in particular are exploring the potential offered by consoles that require no handheld controller, but instead recognize and interpret body motions. As we work with devices that react to us instead of requiring us to learn to work with them, our understanding of what it means to interact with computers is beginning to change.
• Visual data analysis, a way of discovering and understanding patterns in large data sets via visual interpretation, is currently used in the scientific analysis of complex processes. As the tools to interpret and display data have become more sophisticated, models can be manipulated in real time and researchers are able to navigate and explore data in ways that were not possible previously. Visual data analysis is an emerging field, a blend of statistics, data mining, and visualization, that promises to make it possible for anyone to sift through, display, and understand complex concepts and relationships.

Technology Trends in General

12 Trends to Watch in 2010

This list comes from Tim Jones of the Electronic Frontier Foundation in a January 13, 2010 Deeplink post. They're listed as "important trends in law, technology and business that we think will play a significant role in shaping online rights in 2010. " Click on the link for extended explanations--the post is roughly 2,400 words long.

1. Attacks on Cryptography: New Avenues for Intercepting Communications
2. Books and Newspapers: .TXT is the new .MP3. (That is: If publishers are sensible, they'll forego DRM in digital offerings--but that doesn't seem likely. Still, ".TXT" is hardly the only standard, DRM-free format...)
3. Global Internet Censorship: The Battle for Legitimacy
4. Hardware Hacking: Opening Closed Platforms and Devices
5. Location Privacy: Tracking Beacons in Your Pocket. (Do you have the right to not have your current location visible to your boss and the government just because you're carrying a cell phone?)
6. Net Neutrality: The Rubber Hits The Road
7. Online Video: Who Controls Your TV? (Be wary of great-sounding names like "TV Everywhere"--there may be a lot of DRM behind that dream.)
8. Congress: Postponed Bad Legislation Returns. (The Cybersecurity Act, a national ID card and reauthorization of some PATRIOT Act provisions.)
9. Social Networking Privacy: Something's Got To Give. (Do we need a privacy scandal or two to get social networks to pay attention?)
10. Three Strikes: Truth and Consequences. (What happens in countries where ISPs actually agree to terminate user connections when big media claims the user's file-shared thrice--e.g., France and South Korea?)
11. Fair Use of Trademarks: Mockery At Risk. (Satire is an exception to copyright--but what about parodying trademarks? EFF says such parody is protected; DeBeers and The North Face claim otherwise.)
12. Web Browser Privacy: It's Not Just About Cookies Anymore. (According to EFF's own tool, my browser offers enough information to identify me uniquely. What about you?)

The Gartner Hype Cycle As It Applies to 2010-2011

Gartner tries to track emerging technologies along five stages of its own "hype cycle." Those stages: Technology Trigger (launch or demo), Peak of Inflated Expectations (loads of hype), Trough of Disillusionment (when failures become evident), Slope of Enlightenment (when some businesses and users find the tool in the toy), and Plateau of Productivity (when the technology becomes useful and accepted).

Caveats include the truism that most technologies fail--either within that cycle or shortly thereafter. (My own rule of thumb is 80x80: 80% of new developments never make it to the marketplace and 80% of those products and services fail within a few years. That means 96% of all novel developments fail--and that may well be too pessimistic.) Another key caveat: The Gartner report sells for $1,995, and I most assuredly have not seen it. What's here comes from a July 27, 2009 post by Hutch Carpenter at I'm Not Actually a Geek. Carpenter includes the full hype cycle chart for mid-2009, with an astonishing number of emerging technologies and Gartner's estimate of "years to mainstream adoption" and where they are on the cycle.

Given those caveats, there's not much trendy here because Gartner flags two and only two items as "less than two years" from mainstream adoption:

• Corporate blogging: Here, libraries have almost certainly been ahead of the game--and how are your library blogs doing these days?
• Web 2.0: Gartner says this is still in the Trough of Disillusionment and a couple of years away from mainstream adoption.

The timelines for other technologies Gartner believes to be on the upslope (the Slope of Enlightenment) may strike some as surprisingly conservative:

• Two to five years (2011-2014?): SOA, location-aware applications, wikis, electronic paper and tablet PCs. Note: the Gartner report came out months before the iPad announcement.
• Five to ten years (2015-2020?): Speech recognition.

Richard Watson's Trends for 2010

A short list of Watson's "things that I'm starting to see or expect to emerge over the next 12-18 months," from a November 17, 2009 post at What's Next: Top Trends:

• Globalization unraveling
• Re-sourcing (industrial repatriation)
• Expecting less and conspicuous non-consumption
• Constant partial stupidity
• Digital isolation
• Flight to the physical
• Hunger for shared experiences
• Fear fatigue.

Top Digital Trends for 2010 from Digital Media Buzz

These trends come from Nuri Djavit and Paul Newnes, provided in a December 3, 2009 post at digital media buzz. The trends in bold, my paraphrase and comments following.

• Facebook replaces personal email. The commentary here is a little bizarre, but apparently the lack of a tradename for emailing (similar to “Googling” or “Xeroxing”) is a Bad Thing: “No brand ever became synonymous with email.” So? Maybe you-all use private Facebook messages instead of email, but “Facebooking” as a general “displacement of personal email as a communication tool” is, to my mind, a wild overstatement. Partial displacement? Sure, just as “microblogging” partially replaces blogging.
• Open source software starts making money (thanks to the cloud). Somehow, we’re now just seeing open-source projects “available to the masses”—but the example given is Beanstalk (a Subversion programming code repository, just the thing “the masses” have been looking for). This trend is all about commercializing free software. I dunno; I would have thought Firefox was a reasonably established example of open source software “available to the masses,” and seems to me Red Hat and others have made money off Linux for years now.
• Mobile commerce—The promise that has never delivered, yet. But it’s finally going to. Maybe.
• Fewer registrations—one sign-in fits all. With the qualifier “fewer,” I think this is right on the money, but I’m guessing banks and financial institutions will and should be exceptions. I’m not sure I want my OpenID to grant credit card access in general, actually, but it’s fine with me if it logs me into every blog commenting feature.
• The continuing evolution of Web-driven, open source DIY culture. You’d have to read this one yourself. If they mean “crowdsourcing,” I’m doubtful. If they mean web-based collaboration among generally-small teams, they may be right.
• Info-art. Yes, there will be “greater innovation spurred by more elegant ways of capturing and visualizing information”—and it will continue to make me and some others nervous, because “data visualization” can do such a wonderful job of biasing and distorting data…particularly if you scrap a few outliers because they mess up the visualization.
• Crowd sourcing. Here it is directly, “a growing tool as part of outsourcing strategies.” Huge growth in crowd-sourcing models. “Organizations will mobilize the passionate special interest groups to not only carry a message but, even more importantly perhaps, to lead and take part in activities on their behalf.” I don’t doubt that companies and others will do their best to get people to do something for nothing; “digital sharecropping” seems unlikely to fade away.
• More Flash, not less. No comment.

It’s worth noting that these “digital trends” are all about marketing and business. “Social media” is only interesting as it’s coupled into “social media marketing.” The two writers are partners in a digital marketing and design company.

10 Ways Social Media Will Change in 2010

ReadWriteWeb is full of lists and assured projections. This one comes from Ravit Lichtenberg, posted on December 11, 2009. The assertions are in boldface. My notes are in regular type. Note that these are all changes that will happen in 2010 and apparently affect most or all of us.

• Social media will become a single, cohesive experience embedded in our activities and technologies. Wow. For most or all of us, social media becomes by December 2010 “an integrated, unquestionable component of your online and offline experiences.” This will “cut across all of our activities” and “everything we do will be gathered and streamed together.” Count me out, and this may be the single most dystopian vision I’ve seen for 2010: One Great Social Network to Rule Us All.
• Social media innovation will no longer be limited by technology. Since there will be no closed platforms or discrete logins, companies will “leverage existing assets” in new and wonderful ways. No comment.
• Mobile will take center stage.
• Expect an intense battle as people and companies look to own their own content. Which would seem to conflict with some of the others, but never mind. Intense battle? I doubt it. (Rupert Murdoch is no more the universal constant than Steve Jobs is.)
• Enterprises will shape the next generation of what we’ve called “social media.” Not just that social networking all takes place on corporate platforms, but that companies will determine how social experiences work. Oh, what a wonderful projection.
• ROI [Return On Investment] will be measured—and it will matter. It doesn’t hurt to remember that ReadWriteWeb is really all about money.
• Finally: Real, cool and very bizarre online-offline integration. Among other things—and remember, these are short-term projections, “you’ll never need to ask for a business card again” at events and we (all of us?) will be using our mobile devices to make our real-world decisions.
• Many “old” skills will be needed again. The skills mentioned all seem to be marketing-related.
• Women will rule social media. Take away the silly “rule” and this is a useful comment: Companies who don’t pay attention to women are in trouble—but that’s nothing new.
• Social media will move into new domains. What domains? “Verticals such as nonprofit” (the whole nonprofit sector is now just a “vertical” like job training and health care). This long essay repeats the assurance that social media will be “fully integrated into everything we do online and offline” (emphasis added--does that include the kitchen, the bedroom and the bathroom?) and seems to say companies will give up boring old philanthropy for wonderful new “learning or teaching.”

10 Tech Concepts You Need to Know for 2010

Leaders need diversions too, and this list from the January 2010 Popular Mechanics--the Wired for things that actually exist--is, well, interesting. Remember, these are all things you need to know about this year!

Let's keep this short--just a list instead of a set of bullets: The ten are anthropomimetic machines (robots that mimic human form), direct carbon fuel cells (there might be a prototype this year), metabolomics, DNA origami (using folded DNA to anchor computer chip components!), piezoelectric displays (screens that can change shape or texture), osseointegration (prosthetics that fuse with living bone, which may be tested multiple times on dogs this year), horizontal drilling (to get more natural gas--if the price for natural gas is high enough), kinetic hydropower (underwater turbines that generate electricity without damming sources), nanoyarn (nanotubes woven into yarn), ultracapacitors (possible alternatives to batteries for electric cars). You'll have to determine whether you think these are things you need to know about this year.

Related Articles

• Technology Trends: Recent History -- Trends through mid-2009.
• Privacy and confidentiality - Should libraries rethink privacy standards and allow "various levels of opt-in"?
• Why look at open source now? helps you get up to speed on open source as a key to future library innovation
• From open stacks to open source - Joe Lucia offers insight on why open source is important for libraries.
• Future catalogs: food for thought offers a visionary set of future possibilities for the "catalog."
• Trends to consider - Going beyond the library, there's a consumer-oriented "trends" website claiming to have more than 8,000 trendspotters.